# Success: include the target itself

**Part A · L04 · 5–10 minutes · Prerequisite: L03**

## The situation and question

Our generic task succeeds when two d6 plus a modifier total **8 or more**.
With no modifier, what is the chance of success? This completes our small
invented task rule; named games may add exceptions and different difficulties.

## Predict

Is success more or less likely than half? Does rolling exactly 8 count?

## Build

A dot asks a value to perform an operation. `total.p_ge(target)` asks for the
probability of a result **greater than or equal to** the target. The target is
included. `total.pmf(target)` asks for **exactly** that result instead.

A probability is a number from 0 to 1: 0 means impossible, 1 means certain,
and 0.5 means 50%. The report can format it as a percentage; do not multiply
by 100 before passing it to a probability report.

```dice
modifier = 0
target = 8
total = d(6) + d(6) + modifier
output("Success: eight or more", total.p_ge(target))
output("Exactly eight", total.pmf(target))
```

## Run and read

Totals 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 have 5, 4, 3, 2, and 1 pairs respectively.
Success therefore has probability 15/36, about 41.67%. Exactly 8 has probability
5/36, about 13.89%. These outputs are **different questions**, not categories
that should add to 100%: exactly eight is already included in success.

## Change one thing

Set `modifier = 2`. **Check:** success becomes 26/36, about 72.22%, because
the unmodified dice now need only 6 or more. Update titles if you change the target.

## Part A checkpoint: try it yourself

Without copying this script, report the success chance for one d8 plus 2,
meeting or beating a target of 7. Name both parameters and explain the answer.

**Solution reasoning:** the die itself needs 5, 6, 7, or 8. Four of eight faces
succeed, so the answer is 1/2. Use `d(8) + modifier` and ask `.p_ge(target)`.
Exactly 7 after the bonus is only 1/8. As boundary checks, target 3 is certain
and target 11 is impossible.

## What you now know

Specify the event before selecting a query. An inclusive threshold is not an
exact result, and a plausible average alone does not answer a success question.

## Where next

[Previous: modifiers](03-modifiers.html) · [Next: roll-under checks](05-roll-under.html).
Continue into Part B to compare choices and build compact reports. The [pool-count recipe](../cookbook/count-high-faces.html) later asks
how often *individual faces* match, rather than querying their sum.